There are not many days between "stepping on the brakes" in late April and regaining the upward trend since early May.
On May 20th, the international gold price once again set a record high. London gold price and COMEX gold futures price both broke through the $2,440/oz mark and continued to attack. Domestic gold prices opened sharply higher, and SHFE gold in Shanghai Futures Exchange hit 582.44 yuan/gram. (Source: Wind)
After a break in late April, the price of gold once again opened the rising channel in May.
In the past two weeks, the inflation, employment, economic growth and consumption data released by the United States have weakened in an all-round way, the US dollar index and US bond interest rates have fallen back at a high level, and the market’s expected first interest rate cut has been advanced again, and macro bets have boosted the recovery of gold prices; On the weekend, the risk worries caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East fermented and brought more safe-haven funds into gold.
Since March this year, the global gold price has ushered in a remarkable surge, and the gold price has been "soaring" all the way, and the banner of a record high has been refreshed again and again. At present, in the face of the complex intersection of short, medium and long-term influencing factors, how do you view the future trend of gold prices? Standing above the $2,400/oz mark of COMEX gold, can you still allocate gold?
The gold of the times
"Sometimes Betrayal" and "Never misjudge. "
How to treat the future trend of gold price? In the long history, gold has experienced many "bull and bear markets" step by step.
Before 1970s, the global monetary system actually took gold as the "anchor", with the US dollar pegged to gold and the major western currencies pegged to the US dollar. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in August 1971, it declared the end of the gold-linked era.
Since then, gold has experienced nine complete big markets, lasting for 32 months on average and increasing by 172% on average.
Source: Wind, open sourceresearch institute
The boosting factors of each gold bull market are closely related to the context of its times and are different from each other. However, no matter how the times change, most of the time it revolves around several real pricing logics closely related to the characteristics of gold itself:
① Financial attribute: gold does not bear interest, but it bears interest when holding US Treasury bonds. As the opportunity cost of holding gold, the real interest rate of 10Y US Treasury bonds is negatively correlated with the price of gold.
(2) Safe haven property: When financial, economic and geopolitical fluctuations or crises occur, the demand for safe haven of gold is often increased, which leads to a risk premium.
③ Currency attribute: Gold has certain substitution for the US dollar system, and the weakening of US dollar credit will benefit gold.
4 Commodity attributes: Gold can resist inflation, and the dollar will depreciate with inflation, so the higher the global inflation, the higher the price of gold.
This round of gold rising cycle began in November 2022 and has lasted for 16 months, with an increase of more than 40%. Then, from the above pricing logic, what factors have started this round of gold bull market?
From the traditional pricing framework, gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, and the real interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding gold. In other words, the interest rates of gold and US debt are in the same boat, and the downward interest rate will push the price of gold higher.
The rush of funds to the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations and the expectation of the easing cycle often become the catalyst for the rise of the gold market.
In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve officially completed the current round of interest rate hikes for 11 times. After that, the US economic data slowed down in October, and the Fed’s interest rate meeting in November was biased. So far, it is the most historical interest rate hike cycle in the United States since 1980. It has basically become a consensus that when interest rate cuts become the general trend, gold will enter the rising market.
The trend of gold in the past 20 years can be found that the market of gold often begins with the end of interest rate hike, and finally monetary tightening or economic recovery. For example, at the end of interest rate hike in late 2006 and late 2018, the price of gold started a big rising cycle and the market went all the way to the end of the interest rate cut cycle.
However, in this gold bull market, we will find that the trend of gold has undergone subtle changes, and it seems that it is no longer satisfied with its limited play under the dollar order.
Especially since the beginning of this year, gold has become the focus not only because of its remarkable increase, but also because of its "challenge" to the traditional pricing framework: the law that the real interest rates of gold and the dollar and the United States usually change in the opposite direction has "failed".
Since April, the nominal interest rate of 10-year US debt has surged to nearly 4.7%, the real interest rate has risen from 1.87% to 2.41%, the US dollar index has risen from 104 to 106, but gold has soared by over 7% for a time, and it has only recently been slightly adjusted back. (Source: Wind)
Is there a new and more important pricing factor at work in this seemingly contradictory trend, or is it just an illusion caused by short-term emotional excitement?
Tracing back to the source, the bottom of the logic is the ultimate deduction of the safe-haven property of gold in the process of reshaping the global political and economic system. The occurrence of deviation and the failure of the anchor actually increase the "fragility" against the dollar.
Gold is a mirror image of the dollar, and the market in recent years has cast a vote of no confidence in the dollar. Although after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the world entered the credit currency system represented by the US dollar, and gold no longer has the functions of circulation and pricing, but it still maintains the role of value storage. Therefore, once the credit currency system represented by the US dollar is in crisis, gold will rise sharply.
Internally, in recent years, the US finance has continued to expand substantially, the debt scale has accumulated rapidly, and the problem of fiscal sustainability has caused social concern. Fitch downgraded the credit rating of US debt, which became the internal cause of the credit decline of the US dollar system. The rise of geopolitical risks and the rise of anti-globalization thoughts are the external causes of the decline of the credibility of the US dollar system. The freezing of foreign exchange reserves in some countries in the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine accelerated this process.
Internal and external factors are superimposed, the credibility of the dollar system is declining, and the world has entered the process of "dollarization". Central banks around the world have turned to gold as an anchor to stabilize foreign exchange reserves.
Gold sometimes seems to "betray" the traditional analytical framework, but what is never misjudged is the trend and background color. The gold of the times is generally the same.
The golden age
"Megatrend" and "Masterpiece"
After experiencing record highs again and again, the value of short-term transactions will decrease when standing above the threshold of COMEX gold of $2,400/ounce. A smoother rise may need to wait for catalytic factors. This is a change, but there are some unchanged ones, which ensures that the value of gold in large-scale asset allocation is still outstanding.
On the one hand, the "megatrend" under the current narrative background of the world remains unchanged, the US debt problem is hard to return, geopolitical events are frequent, the pattern of anti-globalization and dollarization may be further deepened, or the global central bank will continue to increase its holdings of gold, and the logic of long-term rise in gold prices is still there.
First, in the second half of the year, with the gradual realization of the expected interest rate cut in the United States, the downward trend of the real interest rate of the 10-year US debt is expected to support the gold price to a certain extent. However, considering that the interest rate cut is expected to rush since 2023, the persistence and elasticity of the subsequent gold market depends on the change of the expected difference.
Second, this year may become the biggest election year in history. In recent years, overseas risk events have continued, and the global economic policy uncertainty index center has risen, which also provides room for high gold prices.
Third, the game between big countries in the fields of politics, economy, industry and finance has been fully rolled out. Anti-globalization has brought about an increase in friction costs, superimposed energy transformation and inflation stickiness in the service industry, and it may be difficult for overseas long-term inflation centers to fall back quickly.
Fourth, on the chess game of the global economy, changes are quietly staged, the US debt problem is hard to return, geopolitical events are frequent, and the supranational sovereign credit value of gold under the new paradigm will constitute the medium and long-term investment logic.
Historically, the emergence of every round of gold bull market is inseparable from the strength of the gold currency attribute, which reflects the changing forces of all parties in the international monetary system.
According to the data released by the central bank on May 7, despite the recent rapid rise in international gold prices, the pace of the Bank of China’s increase in holdings has remained basically stable. At the end of April, China’s gold reserves were 72.8 million ounces, compared with 72.74 million ounces at the end of March. This is the people since October 2022.For the 18th consecutive month, it increased its holdings of gold reserves, setting the longest holding period.
Statistics show that at present, the proportion of gold in China’s international reserves is only 4.32%, which is still far below the global average of about 14%. The proportion of gold reserves in the United States, Germany, Italy and other countries in the same period is over 65%, so there is still room for improvement in the future. (Source: World Gold Council; Publicly reported)
From this point of view, the participants in the short-term gold game seem to face a strong opponent, which makes investors who try to play short-term gold games seem unwise and difficult to win.
On the other hand, after the rise, the return risk characteristics of gold itself have not changed, and the low correlation with other assets still exists, which ensures that the value of gold in the allocation of large assets is still outstanding.
In recent 20 years, the correlation coefficient between gold and other common large-scale assets is less than 80%, and the correlation coefficient between gold and the main indexes of A-share market is less than 50%:
The trend of dollar gold and Shanghai gold is highly consistent: the correlation coefficient between SHFE gold and COMEX gold is as high as 0.98 in recent 20 years. Although Shanghai gold is affected by the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, from the perspective of long-term allocation, the trend of the two is highly consistent;
The correlation between gold and A shares is low: gold and CSI 300,Most of the correlation coefficients are within 0.5, and those with equity funds and hybrid funds are within 0.7. (Source:Institute)
Taking the most common equal weight strategy as an example, we observe the effect of moderately increasing the gold allocation in the allocation of 28-share debt and 64-share debt respectively.
The calculation shows that moderately increasing gold allocation in the allocation of 28-share debt and 64-share debt can achieve a better strategy of increasing income and reducing risk at the same time.
In the benchmark strategy of 2:8 ratio of stocks and bonds, if 10% of funds are removed from bond assets and 5% from stock assets, the average annualized rate of return will increase by 0.69 percentage points, the maximum withdrawal will decrease by 1.97 percentage points, the annualized volatility will decrease by 0.38 percentage points, and the annualized Sharp rate will increase by 0.199.
On the benchmark strategy of 6:4 ratio of stocks and bonds, if 15% of funds are removed from bond assets and 5% from stock assets, the average annualized rate of return will increase by 1.11 percentage points, the maximum withdrawal will decrease by 1.57 percentage points, the annualized volatility will decrease by 0.71 percentage points, and the annualized Sharp rate will increase by 0.091. (Source: Institute)
On the other hand, this forever shiningNo one can predict how long its history will develop. However, the history of gold over thousands of years makes people reasonably believe that future generations will also be fascinated by gold.
How to allocate gold? Physical gold has always been regarded as a "safe haven", which is more suitable for investors who pursue a sense of security and long-term value storage, but it needs to be carefully stored to prevent its value from being affected by wear and tear.
In contrast, gold-related theme funds, such as gold stock ETF or gold ETF, provide a more convenient choice for market transactions, but when the market is hot, it is also necessary to maintain the principle of rational investment and avoid paying for high premiums.
However, no matter which variety you choose, you must pay attention to the position control when allocating gold. Gold is more suitable as a part of asset allocation rather than a heavy position or a single layout, and the usual position ratio is 5-10%.
As far as the current gold investment is concerned, perhaps the answer before investors is this:Moderately downplay the short-term trading value of gold, look for the opportunity to point gold in the shock, and explore the gold value in asset allocation from the perspective of long-term allocation.
(Article source: Huaxia Fund)