Gold market fluctuates and gold ornaments are cold, so experts call for rational investment.
Since March, the price of gold has continued to rise, setting a new record! The domestic gold price once appeared "overnight soaring". After accumulating a large increase, recently, the international gold price fluctuated at a high level, and the gold price that had previously maintained an upward trend sat on a "roller coaster".
How to rationally allocate limited assets in the gold market and make sustained profits has become an urgent problem for investors.
The price of gold suffered a major decline after the peak.
On April 12, local time, Loco London gold rose all the way in the morning, rising nearly 2.5% in intraday trading, but then plunged sharply, which not only retreated all the gains of the day, but also finally closed with a decline of 1.25%, with a retreat of nearly 4% in the day; Futures prices also followed the spot price out of a similar market. COMEX gold futures once rose more than 3% in intraday trading and finally closed down 0.53% at $2,360.2 per ounce.
Affected by the high diving of the international gold price, the increase of Shanghai Gold also narrowed on the night of April 12, and it once rose more than 4% in intraday trading, and then it was adjusted back, and the increase fell back to 0.15% at the close.
On the evening of April 10th, the latest data of ——CPI (Consumer Price Index), the most critical inflation data before the Federal Reserve’s May resolution, was released. The US CPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year in March, which was higher than the market expectation of 3.4%. This figure intensifies the fear that inflation will accelerate again, which means that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in June will decrease. The market’s expectation of the timing and frequency of the Fed’s interest rate cut this year has also changed to two times since September.
After the data was released, the international gold and silver prices fell briefly. However, the year-on-year growth rate of the US PPI (ex-factory price index of industrial producers) in March announced on the evening of 11th was slightly lower than expected, and the chain growth rate slowed down to 0.2%, which made gold and silver "rebel" again.
On April 12, COMEX gold reached a maximum of $2,448.8 per ounce; Spot gold in London once reached $2,431.78 per ounce, both hitting record highs.
The gold price of jewelry is almost equal to 730 yuan/gram.
High prices "persuade" consumers
For the recent rise in gold prices, many netizens have commented on "regret not getting on the bus" and "the price of gold jewelry is too high". Some netizens also said, "Now this price is just needed and I dare not buy it."
"This period of time is a price per day. Generally speaking, it is a small increase or a small increase." The sales of a gold shop in Chengdu told reporters, "The price of gold has really risen too high recently, and many consumers are waiting to see. I have served a couple who are about to get married before, bought a ring before the New Year, and recently wanted to buy earrings, bracelets and other accessories, just because the price of gold has risen too high recently, I have been hesitating."
The salesperson told reporters that if you are in a hurry to get married, you can consider platinum rings, and there has been no big price fluctuation recently.
The reporter visited several brand gold stores in Chengdu and found that the listing price of gold jewelry today is slightly lower than that of 730 yuan per gram a few days ago. At present, the prices of jewelry in gold jewelry stores of brands such as Lao Fengxiang, Chow Tai Fook and Zhou Shengsheng are mostly between 720 yuan and 728 yuan per gram. In the actual purchase process, different brand stores will give different degrees of concessions through in-store concessions, discounts and full reduction, and the final price will be between 680 yuan and 710 yuan per gram.
"The peak period of gold consumption is generally around the New Year. Now, after entering March and April, consumers’ purchasing enthusiasm has declined, and passenger flow and transactions will be less." A clerk in a gold jewelry store told reporters that the price of gold has been rising recently, and some "non-just-needed" consumers will also choose to wait and see.
Explore the reasons for the sudden drop in the price of gold
After analysis, the researchers studying financial issues in the Climate Change and Energy Transformation Project of Peking University Energy Research Institute believe that the main reasons for the current downward trend of gold prices are as follows:
First, the value of the dollar has risen. As a substitute for the reserve currency, gold has an inverse relationship with the value curve of the dollar. Recently, the value of the dollar has suddenly increased, and investors have chosen to buy a large amount of dollars and sell gold at the same time, and the price of gold has decreased accordingly.
Second, the interest rate is raised. Recently, former US Treasury Secretary LawrenceSummers said in an interview with relevant media that the public should accept the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve, rather than lowering interest rates. Therefore, the increase of interest rate will make investors consider whether it is reasonable to continue to buy gold without interest, which will lead to a decline in their willingness to buy, and then affect the price of gold.
Third, the expected production capacity of gold ore has increased. According to the relevant data released recently by Canadian mining giant osino, its Gemini mine project in Namibia will provide its parent company Yintai Gold with a gold production capacity of not less than 5 tons/year after it is put into production. Yintai Gold expects that the total gold production will rise to 12 tons in 2025. At the same time, Zijin Mining also expects the gold production capacity to rise to 73.5 tons in 2024. It can be seen that the increase in gold production will lead to oversupply, which will lead to a decline in gold prices.
Experts believe that the particularity of gold itself determines that it has an extremely complex market environment. For investors, it is necessary to always remember not to blindly follow the trend, "chase up and stop falling", carefully analyze the reasons for the rise and fall of the value of the invested products, and make a reasonable investment plan according to their own wealth level. Only by doing what they can can be stable and lasting and be invincible in the market. (Wu Shihao)
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