Unscramble the heaviness! What signals did Beijing and Tianjin release when they introduced the new purchase restriction policy？

CCTV News:With the gradual resumption of purchase restrictions in more than 10 cities across the country, on the evening of September 30, Beijing’s purchase restriction policy was further upgraded. The New Deal included increasing the down payment ratio of the first set of ordinary self-occupied housing from 30% to not less than 35%.

The Beijing Municipal Government issued "Several Measures on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in this Municipality" (hereinafter referred to as "Measures"). The main contents include:

Adjust the supply of land

Further increase the supply of residential land, and the proportion of housing area with Taoxing construction area below 90 square meters is not less than 70%.

Accelerate the supply of land for self-occupied commercial housing.

Except Dongcheng District, Xicheng District and Shijingshan District, other districts should arrange a batch of self-occupied commercial housing land to enter the market as soon as possible in 2016.

"Controlling land price and limiting house price"

Pilot measures were taken to limit the sales price and use it as a condition for land bidding, auction and hanging.

Differentiated housing credit policy

The down payment ratio for purchasing the first set of ordinary self-occupied housing is not less than 35%, and the down payment ratio for purchasing the first set of non-ordinary commodity housing is not less than 40%;

For households with one set of housing, if they apply for commercial personal housing loans to buy ordinary self-occupied housing again in order to improve their living conditions, the down payment ratio shall not be less than 50% regardless of loan records, and the down payment ratio shall not be less than 70% if they buy non-ordinary self-occupied housing.

Management of real estate development enterprises

Open all the sales houses at one time within the specified time;

Clearly marked, one room and one price, the actual sales price shall not be higher than the declared price;

Not to delay the opening time or control the housing and other means of property hoarding, deliberately creating a tense atmosphere of housing.

Management of real estate brokerage institutions

It is strictly forbidden to engage in off-site fund-raising financial services such as down payment, self-financing, self-guarantee and the establishment of a fund pool.

Compared with the five detailed rules of Beijing in 2013, what are the differences in the policies introduced this time?

Before and after the adjustment of the New Deal, what impact did it have on your purchase?

　

New Deal of Tianjin Property Market: Implementing Regionalization, Restricting Purchase and Differentiating Credit

On September 30th, the Tianjin Municipal Government issued the Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in our City, which took effect on October 1st.

The "Implementation Opinions" stipulates that Tianjin will implement regional housing purchase restrictions and strengthen differentiated housing credit policies. That is, non-Tianjin registered households with one or more houses in Tianjin will be suspended from buying houses again in six districts of the city and wuqing district, including newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing. For non-local households who purchase the first home in six districts of the city and wuqing district, the down payment ratio for applying for commercial loans shall not be less than 40%.

Beijing issued a policy before October 1, what kind of signal did it send? New purchase restriction, subsequent impact geometry? Will Beijing policy become a template for other first-and second-tier cities to regulate the property market?

Interpretation of CCTV

Beijing’s new real estate market regulation policy reminds many people of the so-called "most stringent" "National Five Articles" promulgated in 2013. However, the strictest policy terms did not stop the house price from "rising to the sky", so it remains to be seen how effective the new policy is.

The inflection point of the purchase restriction policy has been opened in the fourth quarter.

From the "11th and 10th National Articles" in 2010 to the "8th National Article" in 2011 and the "5th National Article" in 2013, judging from the frequency and momentum of policy introduction, the government’s determination to regulate the property market is not great, but from the actual effect, it will inevitably give people the feeling of "more thunder and less rain".

However, different from the background when the government put forward the "combination boxing of regulation and control", the space for trial and error of regulation and control policies is much narrower now than that of that year. At that time, the purpose of macro-control of real estate in many places was not to let the house return to the fundamentals of living function at the beginning, but only to let the house price rise too fast and not rise too fast. Under this guidance, there is a strange phenomenon that the more housing prices are regulated, the faster they rise.

△ The grand occasion of grabbing houses in various places in September

Since the beginning of this year, the crazy rising trend of house prices is spreading from one city to another. In August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, housing prices rose in 64 cities. With the higher and higher housing prices, the bubble in the market has expanded to the point where even large developers themselves are beginning to fear.

China’s real estate fever persists, so we should be alert to more risks.

The danger of high fever in China real estate lies not only in the heavy inventory burden and uneven market distribution, but also in the huge debts behind it and the breadth of "shadow" loans involved. More and more people are worried that once the real estate bubble bursts, it will trigger a systemic financial crisis and drag down the entire national economy. In this context, the government also realizes that there is not much time and space left for policy regulation, and it is time to get serious.

So on September 29th, a person from the Prudential Regulation Bureau of the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a warning that in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, as well as some hot second-tier cities with high housing prices, commercial banks are required to fulfill their accusations and collect more evidence to prevent more risks. Then the next day, Beijing introduced a policy to increase the down payment and recognize the house and loan.

Property market cooling focuses on implementation.

In fact, every policy seems to be very serious at the beginning. The problem is that after the introduction of the property market regulation policy, it is not important to evaluate its severity on paper, but to put it into practice to see how its implementation effect is. Because under the routine of "there are policies on the top and countermeasures on the bottom", there have been too many "policy punches" that seem to be thunderous and thunderous to be evaded by the market. Only careful execution can avoid another "wolf" joke in the real estate market.

Of course, it is believed that both the government and the market have seen the fierce "wolf" approaching, but there is still a lot of work to be done from early warning to effective control of risk exposure. A series of measures, such as increasing the down payment ratio of ordinary housing, should be implemented in a solid manner while looking strict.

Wang Yahong, a financial expert.

Inventory: Cities that have tightened their real estate policies in 2016

Purchase restriction in Shanghai

Purchase restriction in Shenzhen

Purchase restriction in Guangzhou

Purchase restriction in Suzhou

Purchase restriction in Xiamen

Purchase restriction in Hangzhou

Purchase restriction in Nanjing

Purchase restriction in Kunshan City