How big is the impact of the epic slump in global financial markets on A-shares？
Beijing, March 10 (Reporter Cheng Chunyu) The US WTI crude oil futures recorded the largest intraday decline in history, the US stock market rarely triggered the fuse mechanism, the US treasury bond futures "daily limit", and more than half of the world’s important stock market indexes fell by more than 6%. March 9, 2020 is destined to be a day worth recording in the history of global financial markets.
Data Map: new york Stock Exchange.
set records
— — Crude oil futures hit the biggest intraday decline in history.
After the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to reach a production reduction agreement with oil-producing countries, Saudi Arabia drastically cut oil prices, which led to a sharp drop in international oil prices. Brent crude oil futures plunged 30% to $31.02/barrel in early trading, the lowest level since February 2016; US WTI crude oil also plunged 27% in early trading, and once fell more than 33% in intraday trading to $27.34, setting a new record for the largest intraday decline in history.
— — US stocks rarely trigger fuse mechanism.
The U.S. stock market plunged at the opening, and the S&P 500 index fell by 7% at the beginning of the session, triggering the first-level fuse mechanism, causing the U.S. stock market to suspend trading for 15 minutes. This is the first time since the financial crisis in 2008 that US stocks have been blown down due to a sharp fall. There are even media reports that this is the second real fuse in the history of US stocks. The last real fuse of US stocks was on October 27, 1997.
— — More than half of the important stock indexes fell by more than 6%
According to Wind’s statistics, among the 16 important indexes of global stock market, on the 9th, in addition to the three major indexes in the United States, the FTSE 100 in Britain, DAX in Germany, CAC40 in France, Nikkei 225, Standard & Poor’s 200 in Australia, etc., a total of nine indexes fell in intraday trading, and even closed down more than 6% on the same day. The three major European stock indexes fell more than 8% in intraday trading, followed by the China Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by about 3%.
— — Us debt futures "daily limit", yield hit a record low
Under the safe-haven demand, the influx of funds caused the US 10-year treasury bond futures to hit the upper limit and the trading was temporarily suspended. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond once fell to a record low of 0.318%, with an intraday decline of nearly 40%. The 30-year US Treasury bonds once dropped to 0.702%, continuing to hit a record low, with a daily decline of nearly 30%. Moreover, as the leading indicator of economic recession, the yield curves of 3-month and 10-year US government bonds were once upside down, which sounded a panic alarm.
— — The price of gold returned to $1,700 per ounce after eight years.
After the sell-off of crude oil and stock market, investors flocked to the safe-haven assets including precious metal gold. On the 9th, the international gold futures price broke through the $1,700/oz mark, the highest since December 2012.
source map
(blasting) fuse
— — The price war of crude oil suddenly opened after six years.
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and other factors, the U.S. stock market plunged continuously. In view of the evolving risks brought by the epidemic to economic activities, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on the 3rd, and then the U.S. stock market fluctuated widely, and a roller coaster market was staged last week.
"The crude oil price war started in Saudi Arabia over the weekend became the fuse of the global financial market’s plunge on the 9th." According to foreign media reports, Russia refused to cut production at the OPEC+policy meeting on March 6, and OPEC and its allies in oil-producing countries failed to reach any production reduction agreement, which means that from April, OPEC-related oil-producing countries will completely liberalize production restrictions.
On March 7th (Saturday), Saudi Arabia, the main OPEC country, drastically reduced the price of crude oil sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East and the United States, with the largest discount in more than 20 years, in order to attract foreign refineries to buy Saudi crude oil. Saudi Arabia also said that if the market needs it, Saudi Arabia can reach the level of 12 million barrels per day.
The market generally believes that after a lapse of six years, Saudi Arabia took the initiative to start a crude oil price war, which exceeded the market’s previous expectations. Previously, many financial analysts predicted that OPEC would further cut production to boost oil prices.
On the 9th, US President Trump sent a tweet to appease the panic market. It said that the debate between Saudi Arabia and Russia on oil prices and production, as well as the false news spread by political opponents, were the reasons for the stock market decline that day, and the decline in gasoline prices was also a good thing for ordinary consumers.
ChrisRupkey, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Finance, said: "The plan to reduce oil prices will make more cash flow into people’s hands, which can drive consumer spending and boost the economy, but this does not seem to alleviate the impact of the stock market on investors. The plight of Wall Street may have a negative impact on the economy. "
"The plunge in oil prices has once again aggravated the fragility of the market," JasonDaw, head of Asian foreign exchange strategy at Societe Generale, told the media. "The longer the global epidemic lasts, the greater the risk of a full-scale crisis."
afternoon trading
— — Will crude oil prices continue to fall?
On the 9th, the international oil price plummeted, once falling more than 30%, setting a new record for the biggest intraday decline in history. NYMEX crude oil futures closed down 26.74% to $30.24/barrel, the lowest since February 2016; Brent crude oil futures fell 26.24% to $33.39/barrel, both the biggest one-day declines since the Gulf War in 1991.
As of press time, the price fluctuation of energy and chemical futures such as crude oil.
In the latest report, Goldman Sachs analysts said that Brent crude oil price may drop as low as $20 per barrel, which will test some oil producers. "The price war has completely changed the prospects of the oil and gas market. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for the second and third quarters to $30 per barrel."
Hong Hao, managing director and head of research department of Bank of Communications International, believes that the impact of the oil crisis is reflected in the following aspects: the price of junk bonds in the United States will plummet, the stability risk of the financial system will rise, and the expectation of deflation will increase the difficulty of monetary policy.
However, in the view of Xi Jiarui, a senior analyst of Jinlianchuang Crude Oil, this oil price drop will not become a long-term trend like the oil price crash in 2014. Saudi Arabia’s behavior is to force Russia to continue to cooperate with OPEC. It is expected that once the oil price falls to a level that Russia itself feels unable to bear, it is likely to restart the production reduction agreement.
According to the latest report of Everbright Securities, the special alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United States means that it will be difficult for the United States to accept the prospect that oil prices will continue to slump because of the price war in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the current plunge in oil prices is unsustainable, and there may be variables in the future.
Xi Jiarui said, "The next production reduction meeting is on June 9, and it is very likely that Saudi Arabia and Russia will jointly cut production again. At that time, oil prices may rebound in retaliation."
On the 9th, the decline of major stock indexes in European and American stock markets.
— — European and American stock markets enter a technical bear market?
As of the close of the 9th, the Dow Jones index plunged more than 2,000 points, closing down 7.79%, the biggest one-day drop since 2008. The S&P 500 index fell by 7.60%, and the Nasdaq index fell by 7.29%. Oil stocks suffered heavy losses, and Chevron fell more than 15%, leading the Dow. So far, the Dow has dropped by 19.34% compared with the historical high set by this bull market.
On the same day, major European stock indexes closed down across the board, and many stock indexes entered a technical bear market. Britain’s FTSE 100 index fell 7.69%, France’s CAC40 index closed down 8.39%, and Germany’s DAX index fell 7.94%. Among them, Germany DAX index, France CAC40 index, Italy FTSE MIB index, Europe Stoxx 50 index and Britain FTSE 100 index entered the technical bear market.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out that US stocks will fall sharply after peaking. According to the experience of US stocks, a decline of 20% is generally called the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it falls below 20% and does not come back, it shows that the bear trend is confirmed and will fall further by 20%.
Xie Feng, a researcher at China Banking Research Institute, believes that the debt level of American enterprises is high, and the debt quality of residents has deteriorated. Once the economic slowdown exceeds expectations, corporate profits will further decline, and residents’ wealth will also be damaged, which may lead to more risk release in the financial market.
A-share major stock indexes closed on the 9th.
— — Can China A-shares be immune?
On the 9th, among the world’s important stock indexes, the overall decline of A shares was lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.01%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 4.09%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 4.55%. In the whole day, the transaction between the two cities broke through one trillion yuan. The net outflow of northbound funds from Shanghai Stock Connect was 9.671 billion, and that from Shenzhen Stock Connect was 4.648 billion.
Chen Li, chief economist of soochow securities, said in an interview with the media that the main reason for the A-share slump on the 9th was the violent fluctuation of the global capital market, and the violent fluctuation of the external market aroused the concern of domestic investors. The turnover of the two cities has continuously exceeded one trillion, indicating that there are great differences in funds. Some funds are leaving the market, and some funds are considered to be opportunities to buy on dips.
It is noteworthy that on the 9th, the FTSE China A50 index futures, as the leading indicator of the secondary market of the stock market, rebounded and turned red at night, and now rose by more than 1%. At one time, it was close to 2% in intraday trading, and once fell by more than 1%.
"The fundamental reason for the sharp decline of US stocks is that the valuation is too expensive." Everbright Securities believes that A shares are more immune to overseas fluctuations. Under the analytical framework of the policy economic cycle, it is not only economic data but also policy tightness that determines the market trend. Oil prices fell sharply beyond expectations, reducing the risk of stagflation in the near future and broadening the space for domestic policy easing.
Great Wall Securities believes that in the context of global risk assets being sold by funds, the short-term growth of the A-share market is facing emotional selling pressure. In the medium term, China’s securities market shows very obvious value toughness under the background of global general decline, and RMB assets are expected to become a safe haven favored by global funds. (End)